from Bruce Hildenbrand

There is a saying in cycling that the mountains always produce a true winner, which will certainly be the case with the 2008 Tour de France. As the race enters the Alps, Dr. Allen Lim notes that 70% of the critical mountain kilometers will be ridden there. That's a pretty tall order for a Tour that has already seen a major selection in the Pyrenees. But, in a three-week grand tour, it is all about the third week, and it is no coincidence that big mountains always play a role.

Winning the Tour, Giro or Vuelta plays a premium on conserving energy so that you can be strong in that crucial third week, and the three mountain-top finishes to Prato Nevoso, Col de La Bonnette (actually Jausiers, but it is a very fast downhill) and l'Alpe d'Huez will undoubtedly test all the favorites. With the top six riders separated by about a minute, the action should be non-stop.

As we have seen in the past, team tactics can affect the outcome of a stage, but Team Garmin-Chipotle Team Director Jonathan Vaughters, who was an accomplished climber sees it more simply. "There are no tactics on mountain stages. On mountain stages your legs go or they don't. Tactics are for a week ago. Now we are into either you have horsepower or you don't," remarks the rider who once held the record for the ascent of Mont Ventoux.

American Christian Vandevelde on the Garmin-Chipotle team is a favorite for a podium position in Paris. How has he performed so far? Dr. Lim explains, "He has been riding with the GC contenders and that is great, about 5.5 to 5.9 watts/kg on climbs longer than 10 minutes. That's right where he needs to be. If he can sustain that, I think he has a good chance."

While tactics may play a limited role, certainly a team with more riders who can climb does have an advantage. Pre-race favorite Cadel Evans was supposed to have former Discovery Channel rider, Yaroslov Popovych, to help him in the hills, but he has been all but invisible. My guess is that they are missing the services of American Chris Horner who was replaced by Popovych on Evan's Silence-Lotto team this year. Rabobank's Denis Menchov, Gerlosteiner's Bernard Kohl and Vandevelde also have no one to help them when the road goes uphill, they will need to be very attentive and opportunistic if they are to potentially improve their overall position in the Alps.

Team CSC-Saxo Bank is finally showing its teeth and is in the best position to shine in the mountains with three riders, Carlos Sastre and the brothers Frank and Andy Schleck who have all proven that they can climb and climb well. Since none of the three are exceptional time trialists, if they expect to wear yellow in Paris, they will have to attack in the Alps and gain close to two minutes over riders like Evans, Vandevelde and Menchov as the final time trial is a truth-telling 50km and the time gaps could be huge.

Can Team CSC triple-team the other favorites and open big enough time gaps to overcome their shortcomings in the time trial? Can Evans and Vandevelde limit their losses and set up a showdown in the race against truth? After two grueling weeks of racing, who has the legs, and almost as importantly, who believes they can conquer the Alps and capture the yellow jersey?